Boxing Official Bets: Navarrete, Smith, Martin & Distance Parlay — October 24, 2026
This weekend has decisions written all over it. I have six official tickets: Emanuel Navarrete on the moneyline and by decision, Dalton Smith by decision, Frank Martin by decision, Martin–Zaina to go the distance, and a three-fight distance parlay.
Here is the complete card, with the recorded odds, bankroll stakes and saved percentages for both fighters in every matchup involved.
Bankroll entering the weekend: $4,133.15
Total committed: 19% — $785.28
Available bankroll: $3,347.87
Official tickets: 6 — five singles and one parlay.
All six tickets are for Saturday, October 24, 2026. Each stake uses the same starting bankroll; dollar stakes are rounded individually.
#22 · Navarrete moneyline
- Odds
- +155
- Bankroll
- 4%
- Stake
- $165.33
#23 · Three-fight distance parlay
- Odds
- ≈ +126
- Bankroll
- 3%
- Stake
- $123.99
#24 · Navarrete by decision
- Odds
- +333
- Bankroll
- 3%
- Stake
- $123.99
#25 · Smith by decision
- Odds
- +105
- Bankroll
- 3%
- Stake
- $123.99
#26 · Martin by decision
- Odds
- +145
- Bankroll
- 3%
- Stake
- $123.99
#27 · Martin–Zaina distance YES
- Odds
- +120
- Bankroll
- 3%
- Stake
- $123.99
Emanuel Navarrete vs. O’Shaquie Foster
My pick is Navarrete, with two separate tickets: the moneyline at +155 and the decision at +333. The saved forecast is close at 49%–51%, so the moneyline play is about the price I took. The decision ticket is a more specific call and carries its own risk.
| Measure | Navarrete | Foster |
|---|---|---|
| Win — two-way | 49.00% | 51.00% |
| Decision | 21.13% | 38.98% |
| KO/TKO/DQ | 26.89% | 11.00% |
| Fair moneyline | +104 | −104 |
| Market moneyline · Oct. 20 | +160 | −210 |
| Fair decision odds | +373 | +157 |
| Fair KO/TKO/DQ odds | +272 | +809 |
OFFICIAL BET #22 — NAVARRETE MONEYLINE +155
4% of bankroll — $165.33
Win probability: 49.00% · Fair odds: +104
Market-implied probability: 39.22%
Potential profit: $256.26 · Total return: $421.59
OFFICIAL BET #24 — NAVARRETE BY DECISION +333
3% of bankroll — $123.99
Decision probability: 21.13% · Fair odds: +373
Market-implied probability: 23.09%
Potential profit: $412.89 · Total return: $536.88
Navarrete–Foster also appears in the distance parlay below.
Dalton Smith vs. Alberto Puello
I am backing Smith to get the decision at +105. The saved win estimate favors Smith at 57%, while the decision-only probability is lower. This ticket needs Smith to win on the cards.
| Measure | Smith | Puello |
|---|---|---|
| Win — two-way | 57.00% | 43.00% |
| Decision | 33.52% | 34.55% |
| KO/TKO/DQ | 22.34% | 7.59% |
| Fair moneyline | −133 | +133 |
| Market moneyline · Oct. 20 | −200 | +150 |
| Fair decision odds | +198 | +189 |
| Fair KO/TKO/DQ odds | +348 | +1218 |
OFFICIAL BET #25 — SMITH BY DECISION +105
3% of bankroll — $123.99
Decision probability: 33.52% · Fair odds: +198
Market-implied probability: 48.78%
Potential profit: $130.19 · Total return: $254.18
Smith–Puello is also a distance-parlay leg. There is no separate official Smith moneyline ticket.
Frank Martin vs. Tarik Zaina
I still rate Martin above Zaina, and I am backing the decision route at plus money. This one has a boring Martin decision written all over it—I can already hear the boo birds! I also have a separate ticket on the fight going the distance, whichever fighter gets the verdict.
| Measure | Martin | Zaina |
|---|---|---|
| Win — two-way | 72.00% | 28.00% |
| Decision | 40.42% | 22.06% |
| KO/TKO/DQ | 30.50% | 5.52% |
| Fair moneyline | −257 | +257 |
| Market moneyline · Oct. 20 | −2000 | +875 |
| Fair decision odds | +147 | +353 |
| Fair KO/TKO/DQ odds | +228 | +1713 |
OFFICIAL BET #26 — MARTIN BY DECISION +145
3% of bankroll — $123.99
Decision probability: 40.42% · Fair odds: +147
Market-implied probability: 40.82%
Potential profit: $179.79 · Total return: $303.78
OFFICIAL BET #27 — MARTIN–ZAINA DISTANCE YES +120
3% of bankroll — $123.99
Market-implied probability: 45.45%
Potential profit: $148.79 · Total return: $272.78
| Distance probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|
Three-Fight Distance Parlay
Three fights, all to go the distance. This is one official ticket at 3% of bankroll.
OFFICIAL BET #23 — ALL THREE TO GO THE DISTANCE
Shannon Ryan vs. Emma Dolan — YES −300
Market-implied probability: 75.00%
Dalton Smith vs. Alberto Puello — YES −330
Market-implied probability: 76.74%
Emanuel Navarrete vs. O’Shaquie Foster — YES −330
Market-implied probability: 76.74%
Combined odds: approximately +126
3% of bankroll — $123.99
Combined market-implied probability: 44.17%
Potential profit: $156.70 · Total return: $280.69
| Parlay probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|
Shannon Ryan vs. Emma Dolan — parlay matchup
Ryan–Dolan is included only as a distance leg. My straight-up lean is Ryan, but this ticket depends on the fight completing the scheduled distance.
| Measure | Ryan | Dolan |
|---|---|---|
| Win — two-way | 57.00% | 43.00% |
| Decision | 41.90% | 37.93% |
| KO/TKO/DQ | 13.97% | 4.21% |
| Fair moneyline | −133 | +133 |
| Market moneyline · Oct. 20 | −250 | +175 |
| Fair decision odds | +139 | +164 |
| Fair KO/TKO/DQ odds | +616 | +2273 |
Weekend Bankroll
$4,133.15 starting bankroll · $785.28 committed · $3,347.87 available.
The six tickets use 19% of the starting bankroll. Combined potential profit if all six win is approximately $1,284.62, putting the bankroll at approximately $5,417.77. That is an all-win scenario, not an expected return.
Navarrete–Foster affects three tickets; Smith–Puello and Martin–Zaina each affect two. The distance parlay is counted once in the six-bet total.
Prices in the official bet boxes are the recorded ticket prices. Comparison moneylines are saved October 20 quotes. Parlay odds and returns are calculated from the recorded leg prices. Win percentages use two-way moneylines, with a draw returning the stake. Method percentages retain the saved outcome estimates and therefore do not add exactly to the two-way win percentages. Blank distance and parlay forecast fields have no saved estimate; market-implied percentages describe the prices, not our forecast.
Mr. Magic
X @MrMagicBoxing